Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x312a…66b8 sports 375 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,994 (-2%) realized −$2,015 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%132W / 239L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day45.3pace
Fees−$1,167est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$537now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$260
7 days+$276
14 days+$164
30 days−$3,059
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$1,706
world 26% +$1,283
other 8% −$1,746
politics 3% −$882
crypto 3% −$86
culture 1% +$85
tech 0% +$75
finance 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.0% -9.5% 32% 25% -5.6%
≤30d 92 +0.8% -8.8% 35% 30% -17.9%
≤90d 371 -6.0% -14.9% 36% 30% -11.0%
all 371 -6.0% -14.9% 36% 30% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 30% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 26% -19.5%
15% -30.5% 20% -27.3%
20% -37.3% 15% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$83 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$537
Realized−$2,015
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses132 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1,167
Open positions4
Markets (closed)371 / 375
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$291
Trades / day45.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $320 $316 −$4 (-1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $133 $161 +$28 (+21%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $32 $31 −$2 (-5%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $31 $29 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $83 +$129 +156%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $466 −$51 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $65 −$51 -78%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$20 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $34 +$119 +352%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $32 −$15 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $255 +$22 +9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $310 −$13 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $579 +$177 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $92 −$35 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $70 −$31 -45%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 14 $23 −$9 -38%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$17 -17%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $28 +$13 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $587 +$753 +128%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $573 +$215 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $440 −$211 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $318 −$120 -38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $209 +$78 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $708 −$325 -46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $175 −$28 -16%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $46 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $608 +$56 +9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $355 −$230 -65%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $100 −$48 -48%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $123 −$65 -53%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $189 +$63 +34%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $102 −$9 -9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $590 −$172 -29%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $164 −$162 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $112 +$195 +174%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $140 −$38 -27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $222 +$73 +33%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $64 +$75 +116%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 06 $65 −$17 -26%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $225 −$109 -48%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 04 $83 −$9 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $559 +$374 +67%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $90 +$46 +51%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $36 −$23 -63%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $379 −$111 -29%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $96 −$48 -50%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 03 $18 −$2 -11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,786 −$40 -2%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 03 $17 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $204 +$88 +43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $477 +$369 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $265 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $33 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $267 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $315 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $288 11h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $131 12h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $26 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $176 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 15¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $4 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $4 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $11 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $22 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $12 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $97 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $14 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $537.26 · official $529.30 · 3500 history records