Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
31 0x3129…22ed sports 804 markets active 1h ago coverage 349d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,378 (-2%) realized −$5,468 · open +$90
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate61%481W / 307L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$302est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,789now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$279
7 days+$120
14 days+$261
30 days−$1,398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$1,556
politics 7% −$784
other 5% +$1,404
tech 2% −$4,881
world 2% +$148
crypto 1% −$748
culture 0% +$44
finance 0% +$331
economics 0% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -30.8% -37.4% 34% 32% -3.8%
≤30d 127 -23.6% -30.9% 42% 34% -15.6%
≤90d 403 -7.6% -16.4% 66% 26% -11.2%
all 788 -6.2% -15.1% 61% 30% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 30% -11.8%
10% -23.2% 22% -20.3%
15% -30.7% 16% -28.0%
20% -37.5% 12% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$70 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$1,789
Realized−$5,468
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses481 / 307
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$302
Open positions16
Markets (closed)788 / 804
History coverage349d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 788 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $300 $380 +$80 (+27%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 79¢ 90¢ $300 $340 +$40 (+13%)
Will Corbin Carroll hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $198 $216 +$18 (+9%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 60¢ 89¢ $120 $178 +$58 (+48%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $200 $169 −$31 (-15%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $117 $125 +$8 (+7%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $94 +$44 (+87%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $62 −$39 (-39%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 29¢ 19¢ $29 $19 −$10 (-34%)
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-27%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 58¢ 38¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-35%)
Will Munetaka Murakami hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 20¢ $31 $4 −$28 (-89%)
Will Jose Soriano win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Yes 19¢ $39 $1 −$37 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $152 −$152 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $101 +$3 +3%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$19 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $40 +$13 +32%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $20 −$14 -68%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 27 $507 +$454 +90%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$14 +67%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $109 −$47 -44%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$32 +156%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $81 −$43 -53%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $51 −$15 -29%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $52 −$46 -90%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $52 −$27 -53%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $31 −$23 -76%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $20 −$6 -30%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $36 +$50 +140%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$30 +30%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $50 +$7 +13%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $31 +$41 +134%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$5 +31%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $31 +$43 +141%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $111 +$46 +41%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $30 +$13 +43%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$17 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $101 −$89 -88%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 +$14 +48%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 19 $30 −$14 -45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$12 -61%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $221 +$32 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 42¢ $102 56m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 48¢ $42 1h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 70¢ $62 1h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 56¢ $101 3h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $67 11h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 16h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 90¢ $10 16h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 18¢ $7 17h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 54¢ $20 18h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 71¢ $30 18h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $61 20h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 76¢ $101 20h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 76¢ $8 21h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $507 22h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $152 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 26h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes $13 26h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes $12 26h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 26h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers $5 43h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 62¢ $30 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $20 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 51¢ $30 3d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $20 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $40 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Ghana 37¢ $38 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $41 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $308 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,789.04 · official $1,773.49 (match) · 2752 history records