Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
31 0x3127…c8ed crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$351 (-5%) realized −$351 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$442per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days−$355
30 days−$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$10
other 19% −$2
sports 5% −$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 80% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 -12.4% -20.7% 62% 0% -14.1%
≤90d 16 -12.4% -20.7% 62% 0% -14.1%
all 16 -12.4% -20.7% 62% 0% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 0% -14.1%
10% -28.3% 0% -22.3%
15% -35.2% 0% -29.8%
20% -41.6% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$72 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$494
Realized−$351
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage20d
Avg bet$442
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $494 $494 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $502 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $508 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $502 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $481 +$1 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $485 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $135 −$135 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $225 −$225 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $466 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $500 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $580 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $466 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $375 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $413 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $410 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $494 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $482 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $483 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $502 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $508 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $502 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $481 7d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $484 7d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $485 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 27¢ $135 10d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $202 11d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $23 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $466 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $483 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $484 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $466 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $375 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $413 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $305 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $105 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $494.20 · official $494.20 (match) · 36 history records