Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
31 0x3125…788a other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$3 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$24
sports 18% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 57% 57% -10.9%
≤30d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 57% 57% -10.9%
≤90d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 57% 57% -10.9%
all 14 -0.8% -10.2% 57% 57% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 57% -10.9%
10% -18.8% 57% -19.5%
15% -26.7% 57% -27.2%
20% -33.9% 43% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$55 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage7d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$27 +53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 +$31 +149%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$30 +48%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$31 +51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$39 +126%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $191 +$126 +66%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $111 −$109 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$30 +51%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $23 −$22 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 +$5 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $95 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 44h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $51 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $191 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $111 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $31 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $23 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $29 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.09 · official $197.09 (match) · 27 history records