Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3120…efc1 world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-9%) realized −$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 43% −$22
world 34% +$1
sports 8% −$1
other 5% $0
crypto 5% −$1
tech 4% +$1
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +54.3% +39.6% 50% 50% -1.5%
≤30d 12 -10.7% -19.2% 50% 33% -23.9%
≤90d 30 -17.7% -25.6% 53% 23% -23.7%
all 30 -17.7% -25.6% 53% 23% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 23% -23.7%
10% -32.7% 17% -31.0%
15% -39.2% 10% -37.7%
20% -45.2% 7% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)30 / 46
History coverage58d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 99¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+55%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 96¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 65¢ 88¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 77¢ 97¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 85¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 89¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 31¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-60%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 67¢ 16¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-77%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +38%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +30%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $2 −$4 -195%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $2 −$4 -192%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $2 −$4 -194%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $4 $0 -10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $6 −$1 -22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 06 $4 −$1 -29%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 06 $4 +$1 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $2 −$1 -49%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 04 $2 $0 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 03 $3 $0 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 02 $4 $0 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 02 $14 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 02 $6 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $2 +$2 +100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $3 $0 +12%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 25 $4 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $5 $0 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 21 $3 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 85¢ $2 38h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 39h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 39h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 39h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 39h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 39h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $2 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $2 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $2 10d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $2 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $2 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $2 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $2 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $2 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.35 · official $55.51 (match) · 135 history records