Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:23:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x311f…60c5 crypto 1976 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-2%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%1041W / 715L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$71
14 days+$128
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 362 +18.4% +7.1% 66% 66% +8.0%
≤30d 1011 +17.4% +6.2% 65% 65% +7.3%
≤90d 1011 +17.4% +6.2% 65% 65% +7.3%
all 1756 +7.6% -2.7% 59% 59% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 59% -2.0%
10% -12.0% 59% -11.4%
15% -20.5% 59% -19.9%
20% -28.3% 59% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses1041 / 715
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1756 / 1976
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1756 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 53¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.12 · official $0.84 (match) · 3500 history records