Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:02:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
31 0x3118…05f0 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 679d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$237 (-1%) realized −$296 · open +$59
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$690per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$13,441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$877
sports 12% −$365
crypto 6% −$999
politics 3% +$163
tech 2% +$121
culture 0% −$2
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 33 -10.6% -19.2% 55% 42% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 42% -11.0%
10% -26.9% 33% -19.6%
15% -34.0% 15% -27.3%
20% -40.4% 9% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$671) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$227 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

679d coverage
Net worth$13,441
Realized−$296
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions10
Markets (closed)33 / 43
History coverage679d
Avg bet$690
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 71¢ 69¢ $4,743 $4,648 −$95 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1,720 $1,975 +$255 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,715 $1,365 −$350 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,131 $1,255 +$124 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $860 $1,175 +$315 (+37%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $953 $1,157 +$205 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $784 $714 −$70 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $878 $595 −$283 (-32%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $400 $344 −$55 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $213 +$13 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) May 12 $1,002 −$993 -99%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 21 $675 +$90 +13%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? Feb 21 $593 −$346 -58%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 19 $678 +$171 +25%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Feb 12 $500 +$129 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 07 $358 +$177 +49%
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 07 $1,058 +$279 +26%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jan 29 $565 +$220 +39%
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jan 22 $1,313 +$246 +19%
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale? Jan 12 $574 +$26 +4%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 13 $490 −$83 -17%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 07 $183 −$84 -46%
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale? Nov 30 $150 +$28 +19%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-27? Sep 30 $100 +$355 +354%
Cardinals vs. Marlins Aug 23 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-08-17? Aug 18 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-16? Aug 17 $395 −$395 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 16 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 14? Aug 14 $671 −$671 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 08 $49 −$49 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Clippers Jul 21 $86 +$119 +138%
Solana above $180 on July 21? Jul 21 $192 +$158 +82%
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18? Jul 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Ethereum above $3,000 on July 18? Jul 18 $146 +$1 +0%
Pump.fun announces public raise sold out in the first hour? Jul 12 $655 +$191 +29%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Feb 23 $3,000 +$736 +24%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? Nov 30 $0 $0 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Nov 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Aug 20 $905 +$206 +23%
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 11 $824 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 70¢ $3,295 1h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1,489 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $116 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 22d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 26d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $400 28d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $432 29d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $457 29d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $462 29d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $580 29d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $866 29d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $922 29d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 70¢ $1,002 38d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $688 63d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $348 65d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $326 66d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 67d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 67d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 67d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 67d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 67d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 67d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 67d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,441.21 · official $13,442.88 (match) · 383 history records