Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3117…6adb crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$6
other 37% −$3
economics 3% $0
world 2% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 1% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -1.6% -11.0% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 84 -1.3% -10.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 84 -1.3% -10.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 83
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage34d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $73 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 June 1-7? Jun 06 $76 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 06 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 06 $75 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 06 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 06 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 06 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 06 $140 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $75 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $75 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $77 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in May? May 31 $159 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market May 31 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J May 31 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 31 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 31 $76 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 1? May 31 $78 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 31? May 31 $76 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 25-31? May 31 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31? May 31 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? May 31 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by May 31? May 31 $79 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? May 31 $79 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? May 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–$2.75 in May? May 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.50–$1.75 in May? May 30 $82 $0 -0%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? May 30 $82 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 30 $82 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on May 31? May 30 $82 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 30 $80 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? May 30 $80 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? May 30 $82 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? May 30 $82 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $74 1h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $75 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $75 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $75 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $75 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $70 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $75 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $75 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $75 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $75 9d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $70 12d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $70 12d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 12d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 12d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $73 12d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 12d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 12d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $70 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $70 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records