Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3115…b0cc crypto 234 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (234 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-3%) realized −$16 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%112W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day234.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (234 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 233 -10.0% -18.6% 48% 48% -12.9%
≤30d 233 -10.0% -18.6% 48% 48% -12.9%
≤90d 233 -10.0% -18.6% 48% 48% -12.9%
all 233 -10.0% -18.6% 48% 48% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover234.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 48% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 48% -21.2%
15% -33.5% 48% -28.8%
20% -40.0% 47% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses112 / 121
Open positions1
Markets (closed)233 / 234
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day234.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 54¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$2 +164%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$7 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$21 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 29 $27 +$21 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$8 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$2 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$4 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $11 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $27 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $13 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.78 · official $1.78 (match) · 470 history records