Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

31 0x3115…0c28 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$49 (+6%) realized +$82 · open −$33

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip

Net edge+62%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$173per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$725now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+62.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+79.4%	+62.3%	100%	100%	+62.3%
≤30d	1	+79.4%	+62.3%	100%	100%	+62.3%
≤90d	1	+79.4%	+62.3%	100%	100%	+62.3%
all	1	+79.4%	+62.3%	100%	100%	+62.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+62.3%	100%	+62.3%
10%	+46.8%	100%	+46.8%
15%	+32.6%	100%	+32.6%
20%	+19.6%	100%	+19.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +79% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +79% · $-wt +79% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$71 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$725

Realized+$82

Unrealized−$33

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)1 / 5

History coverage3d

Avg bet$173

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$250	$253	+$3 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$250	$234	−$16 (-7%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	66¢	$158	$148	−$10 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$100	$90	−$10 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$89	+$71	+79%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$159	1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	55¢	$89	8h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$103	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	23¢	$257	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$255	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $724.52 · official $724.52 (match) · 8 history records