Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3114…e644 politics 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%4W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$6
sports 26% −$3
other 11% −$2
crypto 8% $0
culture 4% $0
world 4% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 66 -8.5% -17.2% 6% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -25.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -32.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses4 / 62
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage239d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $70 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $71 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $81 $0 -1%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $146 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $67 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Feb 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $70 $0 -1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $69 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $141 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $1 $0 -11%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $146 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $1 $0 -50%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $73 $0 -1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 14? Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 12 $71 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 11 $73 $0 +0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 09 $1 $0 -50%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $72 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 07 $1 $0 -25%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 06 $1 $0 -50%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 04 $74 $0 -0%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Jan 03 $74 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Dec 31 $73 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 31 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $73 $0 -1%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 26 $73 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 25 $151 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $1 $0 -50%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 21 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $2 $0 -17%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $75 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 09 $78 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 08 $68 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 07 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2? Dec 06 $59 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $70 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $70 15d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY No 100¢ $71 27d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 38d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $67 44d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $67 108d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 108d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 108d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 3? BUY No 100¢ $67 113d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 115d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $65 115d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $65 116d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 116d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 118d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $68 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $68 125d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 125d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 127d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $67 127d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $67 138d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 142d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 143d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $69 144d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $69 146d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 147d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 148d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.55 · official $68.55 (match) · 304 history records