Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
31 0x3113…8f8e world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$19
other 10% −$1
sports 3% +$3
weather 3% +$15
politics 2% +$3
crypto 2% +$6
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 25% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 22% 0% -7.3%
≤90d 15 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 7% -7.8%
all 29 +7.1% -3.1% 52% 21% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 21% -8.4%
10% -12.4% 14% -17.2%
15% -20.9% 14% -25.2%
20% -28.6% 10% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage492d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $46 −$1 -2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $90 +$7 +8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $35 +$4 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $35 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $13 −$2 -19%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win less than 35% of the vote in the 2025 Canad Apr 24 $6 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 22 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 19 $4 $0 -6%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-04? Mar 05 $28 −$28 -100%
Chattanooga vs. UNC Greensboro Mar 04 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February Mar 04 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Trump say "Condom" at CPAC conference on Saturday? Feb 27 $3 +$2 +96%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Feb 27 $9 +$6 +62%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Feb 21 $11 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $45 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 6h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 10h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $17 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $12 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $37 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $37 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $41 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $4 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $46 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 51¢ $36 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 51¢ $14 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $51 46h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 59¢ $24 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 59¢ $24 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $39 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $16 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $16 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $43 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $43 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.59 · official $44.59 (match) · 71 history records