Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
31 0x310f…d5cb crypto 291 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$104 (-2%) realized −$106 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate77%224W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$126
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +3.7% -6.2% 83% 43% -9.9%
≤30d 290 -2.0% -11.3% 77% 43% -12.2%
≤90d 290 -2.0% -11.3% 77% 43% -12.2%
all 290 -2.0% -11.3% 77% 43% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 43% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 24% -20.6%
15% -27.5% 17% -28.3%
20% -34.6% 11% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses224 / 66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)290 / 291
History coverage15d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 52¢ 57¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $19 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.01 · official $21.01 (match) · 723 history records