Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x310e…5050 crypto 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,455 (-5%) realized −$1,466 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate51%36W / 34L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days−$115
14 days−$115
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% +$1,147
other 16% −$2,176
crypto 12% −$248
weather 1% −$97
tech 1% −$60
world 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -28.9% -35.6% 33% 0% -31.3%
≤30d 3 -28.9% -35.6% 33% 0% -31.3%
≤90d 24 -12.9% -21.2% 54% 38% -35.8%
all 70 -5.7% -14.6% 51% 37% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 37% -14.1%
10% -22.8% 26% -22.4%
15% -30.3% 20% -29.9%
20% -37.1% 14% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$251 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$1,466
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses36 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage614d
Avg bet$407
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 27¢ 28¢ $183 $194 +$11 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $180 +$8 +5%
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? Jun 17 $100 −$59 -58%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $197 −$65 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 4? May 05 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 4? May 04 $102 −$102 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 3? May 04 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 3? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 2? May 03 $2 +$2 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 2? May 03 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on May 2? May 03 $2 +$4 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 3? May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on May 3? May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 2? May 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 2? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on May 2? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 02 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 02 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 02 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 02 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 02 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 02 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 02 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jan 13 $359 −$359 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 13 $5 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 13 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 19 $153 −$74 -48%
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025? Oct 28 $2,363 −$2,210 -94%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025? Jul 19 $983 −$5 -0%
Yoon arrested by July 15? Jul 09 $270 +$14 +5%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 09 $114 −$75 -66%
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? Jun 14 $3,696 −$3,671 -99%
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July? Jun 13 $200 +$16 +8%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? Jun 13 $200 +$5 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $6,268 +$234 +4%
Elon out of Trump administration before July? May 29 $1,603 +$4,243 +265%
Will Han Duck-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 10 $612 −$595 -97%
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 03 $1,039 +$166 +16%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? May 02 $1,402 −$362 -26%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 01 $789 +$456 +58%
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1? Apr 29 $22 +$9 +42%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Apr 08 $891 +$715 +80%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 01 $1,641 −$163 -10%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025? Mar 23 $623 −$14 -2%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Jan 24 $160 +$67 +42%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jan 24 $110 −$18 -16%
TikTok on the App Store again by Monday? Jan 22 $53 −$14 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 27¢ $187 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 96¢ $3 33h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 96¢ $58 33h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 95¢ $119 33h
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? SELL Yes $41 33h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $132 33h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 4? BUY Yes 85¢ $102 45d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 4? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 45d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 3? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 47d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2? SELL Yes $0 47d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 3? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 47d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on May 3? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 47d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 3? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 47d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 48d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 48d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 2? SELL Yes $0 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 48d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on May 2? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.10 · official $194.17 (match) · 389 history records