trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 10 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 09 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 08 | $79 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -10% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 13 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? | Dec 13 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jun 27 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend | Jun 06 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect | Jun 05 | $9 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? | May 15 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | May 13 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? | May 13 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? | May 11 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | May 10 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 | May 10 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? | May 09 | $9 | $0 | +3% |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? | May 08 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Amazon buy TikTok? | May 08 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? | May 07 | $8 | $0 | +3% |
| Will another coalition form the next German Government? | Mar 30 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 20% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 20% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 20% | 0% | -9.8% |
| all | 24 | -3.6% | -12.8% | 50% | 0% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.8% | 0% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -21.1% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -28.7% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -35.7% | 0% | -33.2% |