Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x3109…12d2
crypto · 1197 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$169 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$170 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses704 / 492
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1196 / 1197
History coverage213d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1196 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$20
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Up 45¢ 92¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+103%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 263 -5.8% -14.8% 59% 45% -13.8%
≤30d 438 -7.9% -16.7% 57% 45% -15.6%
≤90d 550 -7.9% -16.6% 57% 46% -15.5%
all 1196 -3.5% -12.7% 59% 49% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 49% -13.7%
10% -21.1% 39% -21.9%
15% -28.7% 28% -29.5%
20% -35.7% 20% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.03 · official $1.86 (match) · 2711 history records