Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3109…ff47 sports 458 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$697 (-3%) realized −$697 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%237W / 221L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$348est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days−$299
14 days−$364
30 days−$570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$986
other 10% +$54
crypto 1% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -25.9% -32.9% 46% 40% -21.2%
≤30d 248 -11.0% -19.5% 54% 45% -14.2%
≤90d 458 -11.8% -20.2% 52% 43% -13.9%
all 458 -11.8% -20.2% 52% 43% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 43% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 31% -22.1%
15% -34.8% 22% -29.6%
20% -41.2% 15% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$697
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses237 / 221
Est. fees paid−$348
Open positions0
Markets (closed)458 / 458
History coverage39d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 458 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $35 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $27 −$1 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $22 −$17 -74%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $25 −$1 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $57 +$19 +34%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $39 +$21 +52%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $22 +$1 +6%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $106 −$27 -26%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $74 −$66 -89%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $50 +$11 +22%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $30 +$10 +35%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $35 −$13 -37%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $77 +$26 +34%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $54 +$9 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$19 -58%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $189 +$20 +11%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $139 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $34 −$31 -90%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $67 +$14 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $128 +$33 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $90 +$24 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 −$3 -21%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $47 +$13 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $32 +$2 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $70 +$7 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $60 +$10 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $54 +$6 +12%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $61 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $53 +$7 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $36 +$8 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $87 +$11 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 11 $47 −$47 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 11 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $3 −$2 -62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $36 −$5 -13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $33 +$17 +51%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$3 -63%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $8 +$7 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $6 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 17¢ $8 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 17¢ $9 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 57¢ $28 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 52¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 54¢ $27 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 54¢ $27 3h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Donna Vekic 12¢ $6 4h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 45¢ $22 4h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $25 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $40 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $23 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 72¢ $28 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 72¢ $8 18h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $14 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 20h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $60 21h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 72¢ $10 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $39 22h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 48¢ $24 22h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 44¢ $22 24h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $16 26h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Alvaro Guillen Meza 52¢ $26 27h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 54¢ $24 28h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 54¢ $3 28h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon SELL Raphael Collignon 81¢ $40 28h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 59¢ $30 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1725 history records