Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:23:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3108…1454 sports 1181 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$120 (+3%) realized +$111 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%547W / 632L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$1
14 days−$43
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$124
weather 21% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 47% -9.9%
≤30d 601 -2.3% -11.6% 48% 47% -8.3%
≤90d 1179 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 46% -7.9%
all 1179 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 46% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 46% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 45% -16.8%
15% -27.9% 39% -24.8%
20% -35.0% 33% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses547 / 632
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1179 / 1181
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Spirit Academy 42¢ 100¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+136%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Yakult Brothers 48¢ 75¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $3 +$2 +92%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$9 +165%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$8 +388%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$6 +68%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $4 +$7 +158%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$2 +42%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 14 $4 +$2 +58%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$6 +122%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $4 +$11 +256%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs MODUS (BO1) - The International Europe Open Qua Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: 5chudsnoanchor vs Mit Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +27%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$5 +116%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas Jun 12 $19 +$25 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 9? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 9? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 48¢ $3 17m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 47¢ $2 19m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 48¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 38¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 58¢ $1 8h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 50¢ $2 8h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 69¢ $4 9h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 32¢ $3 10h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 33¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 34¢ $2 22h
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A BUY WinteR SquadronS 62¢ $2 25h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 39¢ $3 26h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 39¢ $3 26h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 39¢ $2 26h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 39¢ $2 26h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 38¢ $2 26h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 38¢ $2 26h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 38¢ $2 26h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 38¢ $2 26h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 38¢ $2 26h
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY WinteR SquadronS 37¢ $3 28h
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY WinteR SquadronS 37¢ $2 28h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 20¢ $2 31h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 23¢ $3 32h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 22¢ $2 32h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 71¢ $2 33h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 58¢ $2 35h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 58¢ $2 35h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 59¢ $2 35h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY D family 60¢ $2 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.12 · official $18.12 (match) · 3500 history records