Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x3107…8252
crypto · 936 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$493 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$493 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$493
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses305 / 631
Open positions0
Markets (closed)936 / 936
History coverage13d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day174.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 936 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days−$617
14 days−$493
30 days−$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $85 −$75 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$98 +921%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$8 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$7 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$106 +693%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$29 +271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$94 +878%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$15 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$493
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $107 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $80 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $7 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 0¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 0¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 -10.7% -19.2% 34% 33% -36.1%
≤30d 936 -11.3% -19.8% 33% 32% -25.2%
≤90d 936 -11.3% -19.8% 33% 32% -25.2%
all 936 -11.3% -19.8% 33% 32% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover174.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 32% -25.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 27% -32.4%
15% -34.5% 22% -38.9%
20% -40.9% 18% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records