Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3106…ec13 sports 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$134 (-28%) realized −$134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%25W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$62
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$128
politics 13% −$7
other 6% −$4
crypto 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -21.4% -28.9% 42% 42% -44.7%
≤30d 36 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 47% -30.7%
≤90d 57 -27.2% -34.1% 44% 35% -35.7%
all 57 -27.2% -34.1% 44% 35% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 35% -35.7%
10% -40.4% 30% -41.9%
15% -46.2% 23% -47.5%
20% -51.5% 19% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses25 / 32
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage41d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +137%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +140%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $43 −$43 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $16 +$30 +191%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +46%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $10 −$5 -49%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $33 −$33 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $7 +$8 +119%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $52 −$51 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $47 +$11 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Donald Trump's tie be red on May 8, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +17%
Will Donald Trump's tie be red on May 7, 2026? Jun 06 $4 $0 +8%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07? Jun 06 $8 +$7 +90%
Will Trump praise Karoline Leavitt by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $34 +$35 +105%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 04 $6 +$2 +41%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $6 +$12 +195%
Washington Mystics vs. Toronto Tempo May 12 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? May 12 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Trump say "River" during events with Brazilian president? May 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? May 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Prediction" this week? May 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "UFO" or "Alien" this week? May 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5) May 08 $16 +$5 +31%
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color on May 8, 2026? May 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue on May 8, 2026? May 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 7? May 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees May 07 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Trump say "Cuba" during events with Brazilian president? May 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue on May 7, 2026? May 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color on May 7, 2026? May 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $3 21h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 25¢ $1 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 42h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 17¢ $1 43h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 17¢ $1 43h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $5 44h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 41¢ $2 45h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 46h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $1 47h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 226 history records