Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:35:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x3105…2e7e sports 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,141 (+9%) realized +$1,143 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%36W / 36L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$249
7 days+$125
14 days+$197
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$903
other 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +21.3% +9.7% 57% 57% -4.1%
≤30d 31 +19.0% +7.7% 52% 52% -6.7%
≤90d 72 +9.9% -0.5% 50% 50% -2.7%
all 72 +9.9% -0.5% 50% 50% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 50% -2.7%
10% -10.1% 50% -12.0%
15% -18.7% 50% -20.5%
20% -26.7% 49% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$151 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$1,143
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses36 / 36
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage73d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 44¢ $160 $158 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Dallas Wings (-10.5) Jun 21 $192 +$170 +89%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $89 +$103 +116%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 20 $279 −$279 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $114 +$254 +223%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $66 +$48 +72%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $148 −$82 -55%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 19 $122 −$122 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $150 +$148 +99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5) Jun 18 $243 −$239 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $153 +$119 +77%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 159.5 Jun 18 $132 +$111 +84%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $147 +$134 +91%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $163 −$158 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $131 −$131 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $202 −$33 -16%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $165 −$165 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $163 +$131 +81%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $82 +$315 +383%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 157.5 Jun 13 $160 −$154 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $175 −$44 -25%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 09 $165 +$210 +128%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $224 +$101 +45%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 05 $117 +$107 +91%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 05 $59 +$58 +99%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) Jun 04 $153 −$153 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 03 $147 −$147 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $157 +$145 +92%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 28 $76 +$81 +107%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 28 $147 −$147 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $223 −$48 -21%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 11 $120 −$96 -80%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 11 $147 −$147 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 05 $166 −$163 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 03 $159 +$196 +123%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 205.5 May 03 $162 +$158 +97%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) May 02 $170 +$194 +114%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+1.5) May 02 $164 +$172 +105%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) May 02 $133 +$210 +158%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 May 02 $175 −$175 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 02 $123 −$123 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $166 +$222 +134%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 01 $157 +$135 +86%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $161 −$161 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5 May 01 $168 +$150 +90%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 01 $179 +$166 +93%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $122 +$159 +130%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $163 1h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-10.5) BUY Chicago Sky 52¢ $192 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $192 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $89 35h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 51¢ $77 37h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 51¢ $202 38h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $368 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $114 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $66 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 23¢ $66 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 49¢ $148 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $298 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $150 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $122 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $272 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $153 3d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5) SELL Dallas Wings $3 3d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5) BUY Dallas Wings 52¢ $243 3d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 159.5 SELL Over 100¢ $243 3d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 159.5 BUY Over 53¢ $132 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $282 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $147 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $114 7d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $126 7d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Spurs $5 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $131 7d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $163 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $295 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 54¢ $163 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $124 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.98 · official $157.98 (match) · 152 history records