Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:03:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30fe…89ce other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$1
other 15% $0
politics 13% −$2
sports 10% +$18
economics 8% $0
crypto 8% $0
tech 4% +$1
culture 3% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 3 -7.1% -16.0% 33% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 3 -7.1% -16.0% 33% 0% -11.1%
all 36 +1.5% -8.2% 47% 8% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 8% -7.3%
10% -17.0% 3% -16.2%
15% -25.0% 3% -24.3%
20% -32.4% 3% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage490d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $53 $55 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $77 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $53 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $14 −$3 -22%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Dec 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 05 $4 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $17 +$1 +6%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%? Jun 03 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 29 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $23 $0 -2%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania Apr 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $23 $0 +1%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $22 +$1 +3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 21 $23 $0 -0%
Boston Univ. vs. Lehigh Mar 20 $10 +$14 +144%
Will West Ham vs. Leicester end in a draw? Feb 26 $7 $0 -0%
Bowling Green vs. Eastern Michigan Feb 26 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February Feb 26 $7 $0 -1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Feb 26 $9 −$2 -19%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Feb 25 $9 $0 +0%
Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Feb 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 42°F or below on February 26 Feb 25 $9 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $9 $0 -5%
Portland vs. St. Mary's Feb 20 $9 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 56¢ $53 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $53 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $53 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $4 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $25 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $3 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $21 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $54 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $48 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $49 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $5 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $48 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $21 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $31 14d
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 366d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? SELL No 99¢ $18 381d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 381d
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 384d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $5 384d
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 384d
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 384d
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 384d
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 384d
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 384d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 99¢ $18 384d
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6? SELL No 98¢ $18 384d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.10 · official $55.10 (match) · 119 history records