Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
30 0x30fe…74bc weather 1006 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,724 (+5%) realized +$1,688 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate62%618W / 375L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$595now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$166
14 days−$38
30 days+$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% +$1,710
other 10% −$114
sports 5% −$48
world 0% −$9
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +14.8% +3.9% 64% 39% -14.0%
≤30d 357 +5.0% -5.0% 60% 41% -6.9%
≤90d 993 +10.7% +0.2% 62% 47% -4.9%
all 993 +10.7% +0.2% 62% 47% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.2% 47% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.4% 30% -14.0%
15% -18.2% 22% -22.3%
20% -26.2% 17% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$595
Realized+$1,688
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses618 / 375
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions13
Markets (closed)993 / 1006
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 993 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 88¢ 99¢ $88 $99 +$11 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? No 75¢ 100¢ $71 $95 +$24 (+33%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $82 $88 +$6 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? No 76¢ 86¢ $76 $86 +$10 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19? No 83¢ 85¢ $75 $76 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? No 88¢ 100¢ $66 $75 +$9 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $14 $23 +$9 (+62%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-46%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 10¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $115 +$10 +9%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $110 +$17 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $4 +$2 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $55 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $144 +$20 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$6 +172%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $13 +$47 +363%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $194 −$164 -85%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$1 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$11 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $296 −$13 -4%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 +$21 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $115 +$11 +9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$17 +488%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $59 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $13 +$7 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $169 −$25 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $67 +$10 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$10 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $180 +$30 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $464 +$24 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $127 +$13 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $211 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $406 −$175 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 10? Jun 10 $181 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 +$7 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $93 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 10? Jun 10 $180 +$18 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 10 $484 −$44 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 9? Jun 10 $87 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 9? Jun 09 $171 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 9? Jun 09 $31 +$5 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 83¢ $59 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $77 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $72 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $11 10h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $8 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $83 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 33h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $24 33h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $68 33h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $79 33h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $66 35h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $23 36h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $86 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $46 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $2 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $4 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $9 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $595.21 · official $595.21 (match) · 3500 history records