Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30fd…394a other 78 markets active 6h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$5
politics 16% −$1
sports 7% −$17
culture 4% $0
economics 4% $0
world 3% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -2.6% -11.9% 5% 0% -9.9%
all 77 -2.6% -11.9% 5% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 73
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage87d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $101 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $103 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $89 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $85 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $87 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $178 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $87 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $80 $0 -0%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 07 $86 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $84 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $87 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $89 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 03 $84 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $89 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $90 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $180 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $166 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $167 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $174 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 28 $91 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $90 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $168 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $82 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $157 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $13 6h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $13 8h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 2d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 9d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $13 11d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $13 12d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 16d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $18 17d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 18d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 24d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 24d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.52 · official $56.52 (match) · 192 history records