Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
30 0x30fc…71cd other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-3%) realized −$62 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$567per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$572now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$108
other 21% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -36.6% -42.6% 0% 0% -14.5%
≤90d 3 -36.6% -42.6% 0% 0% -14.5%
all 3 -36.6% -42.6% 0% 0% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 0% -14.5%
10% -48.1% 0% -22.7%
15% -53.1% 0% -30.1%
20% -57.7% 0% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$41 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$572
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage14d
Avg bet$567
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 50¢ $309 $305 −$3 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 72¢ $272 $266 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 13 $1,143 −$55 -5%
Set Handicap: Munar (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,091 −$53 -5%
Akram Afif: 2+ shots Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $202 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $111 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar SELL Tommy Paul 50¢ $1 11d
Set Handicap: Munar (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) SELL Paul 50¢ $1,038 11d
Set Handicap: Munar (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) BUY Paul 51¢ $3 11d
Set Handicap: Munar (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) BUY Paul 51¢ $1,088 11d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar SELL Tommy Paul 50¢ $1,088 11d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $1,143 11d
Akram Afif: 2+ shots BUY Yes 35¢ $15 11d
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $274 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $571.95 · official $571.95 (match) · 10 history records