Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x30fc…ff0b other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 596d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-2%) realized −$35 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$430per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 596d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$25
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-61.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -15.5% -23.5% 0% 0% -23.5%
≤30d 1 -15.5% -23.5% 0% 0% -23.5%
≤90d 1 -15.5% -23.5% 0% 0% -23.5%
all 2 -57.7% -61.8% 0% 0% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.8% 0% -30.2%
10% -65.4% 0% -36.9%
15% -68.8% 0% -43.0%
20% -71.8% 0% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$14 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$873
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage596d
Avg bet$430
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $441 $438 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $435 $431 −$4 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $112 −$17 -16%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 28m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $441 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $444 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $41 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $829 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 66¢ $104 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $108 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $108 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $345 9h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 23¢ $95 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $112 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $94 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $583 11h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 596d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 596d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $872.60 · official $872.60 (match) · 17 history records