Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30fa…5444 crypto 1087 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,592 (+3%) realized +$1,592 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate87%977W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day92.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$333
other 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 317 -13.1% -21.4% 80% 8% -18.2%
≤30d 1125 -4.8% -13.9% 87% 8% -12.1%
≤90d 1125 -4.8% -13.9% 87% 8% -12.1%
all 1125 -4.8% -13.9% 87% 8% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 8% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 5% -20.6%
15% -29.7% 3% -28.2%
20% -36.6% 2% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$28 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,592
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses977 / 148
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1125 / 1087
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day92.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1125 Trades
no open positions (83 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16? Jun 15 $100 −$102 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records