Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30f9…fbfc world 219 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$88,762 (+317%) realized +$88,099 · open +$663
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +157% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +98% what you keep after slip
Net edge+98%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%40W / 83L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day101.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$6,860now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$29,683
other 15% +$1,934
tech 2% +$30
finance 2% +$5,779
politics 0% +$744
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+132.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -11.9% -20.3% 23% 19% -21.4%
≤30d 121 +160.1% +135.3% 32% 29% +108.7%
≤90d 123 +156.7% +132.3% 33% 29% +104.7%
all 123 +156.7% +132.3% 33% 29% +104.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +132.3% 29% +104.7%
10% ← realistic here +110.1% 26% +85.1%
15% +89.8% 24% +67.2%
20% +71.2% 24% +50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +153% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +157% · $-wt +153% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +287% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,054 vs −$56 · ×18.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.02 per $1 lost it wins $9.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$6,860
Realized+$88,099
Unrealized+$663
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses40 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions187
Markets (closed)123 / 219
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$128
Trades / day101.7
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 187 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 63¢ 99¢ $310 $489 +$178 (+57%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 51¢ 66¢ $262 $341 +$79 (+30%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 59¢ 99¢ $145 $246 +$101 (+70%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 16¢ 59¢ $66 $242 +$176 (+266%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 70¢ 76¢ $220 $240 +$20 (+9%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 40¢ 88¢ $110 $240 +$130 (+118%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 68¢ 99¢ $142 $206 +$64 (+45%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $223 $197 −$26 (-12%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 39¢ 16¢ $434 $184 −$250 (-58%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 80¢ 90¢ $154 $173 +$19 (+13%)
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 68¢ 98¢ $110 $160 +$50 (+45%)
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30? No 69¢ 99¢ $104 $149 +$45 (+43%)
Will US annex any territory in 2026? No 80¢ 92¢ $122 $140 +$18 (+15%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $49 $139 +$90 (+186%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 50¢ 90¢ $73 $131 +$59 (+81%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $33 $126 +$94 (+284%)
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30? No 71¢ 96¢ $88 $119 +$31 (+35%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 76¢ 90¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 16¢ 92¢ $20 $118 +$97 (+475%)
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 71¢ 100¢ $84 $117 +$33 (+39%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 29¢ 90¢ $37 $114 +$77 (+209%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 9¢ 4¢ $213 $107 −$106 (-50%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 73¢ 76¢ $102 $106 +$4 (+4%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 95¢ $65 $106 +$40 (+62%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 69¢ $107 $105 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $13 +$9 +74%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $40 +$297 +748%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $8 +$24 +317%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +212%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $27 −$17 -63%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $160 +$97 +60%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$5 +212%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $33 −$5 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Vivian Wilson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $42 −$8 -19%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 13 $42 −$26 -62%
Will Hasan Piker be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 13 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $15 +$41 +265%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $188 +$746 +398%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $523 −$514 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $321 −$313 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $55 −$23 -42%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $123 −$123 -100%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-Jun Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $59 −$59 -100%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 11 $47 −$23 -49%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $52 −$28 -54%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 11 $82 −$79 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 11 $91 −$75 -82%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 11 $44 −$42 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $42 −$42 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 14m
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? BUY Meta 3¢ $3 37m
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $2 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 15¢ $29 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 3h
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 3h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 57¢ $58 3h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 55¢ $4 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 4h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,860.10 · official $6,860.13 (match) · 3500 history records