Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x30f8…5edb other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$493 (-1%) realized −$181 · open −$312
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate61%43W / 28L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$769per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$1,143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$852
7 days−$1,036
14 days−$1,036
30 days−$2,088
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$1,824
sports 10% +$718
crypto 1% −$255
world 1% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +6.7% -3.5% 60% 55% -15.3%
≤30d 37 -3.5% -12.7% 49% 46% -16.7%
≤90d 71 +10.0% -0.5% 61% 59% -11.4%
all 71 +10.0% -0.5% 61% 59% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 59% -11.4%
10% -10.0% 55% -19.9%
15% -18.7% 44% -27.6%
20% -26.6% 34% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,012) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$306 vs −$510 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$1,143
Realized−$181
Unrealized−$312
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses43 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage50d
Avg bet$769
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $1,454 $1,143 −$312 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $391 +$78 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $252 +$110 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $553 +$126 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $90 +$63 +70%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $508 −$207 -41%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$105 -52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $808 −$800 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $243 −$157 -64%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$41 +40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,373 −$1,048 -31%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $325 +$302 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $305 −$255 -84%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,145 +$178 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $760 +$396 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,256 −$589 -47%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,991 +$349 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $254 +$289 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $109 −$54 -50%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $80 +$78 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $509 +$169 +33%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 03 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo Jun 03 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 03 $302 −$302 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $290 −$285 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1,219 −$1,025 -84%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $102 −$31 -30%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $1,422 −$79 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $506 +$313 +62%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2,069 −$1,430 -69%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $94 −$43 -46%
Poland vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score May 31 $169 −$75 -44%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,925 +$1,405 +73%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $178 +$159 +89%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $323 +$353 +109%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 20 $560 +$162 +29%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $203 +$267 +131%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $418 −$324 -78%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,586 +$539 +34%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $152 +$125 +82%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $508 +$533 +105%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $254 −$151 -60%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,955 −$1,783 -91%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $303 +$114 +38%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $303 +$158 +52%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $2,172 +$816 +38%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 15 $161 +$106 +66%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $2,432 +$624 +26%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $102 −$65 -63%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $2,061 +$436 +21%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $911 +$308 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,464 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $469 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $391 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $252 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $553 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 58¢ $90 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $300 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $203 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $305 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 27¢ $97 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $19 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 45h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $143 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $67 46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $152 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $606 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $478 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 68¢ $1,847 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $3,373 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $627 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $44 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $325 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,323 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,142.71 · official $1,161.60 · 163 history records