Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30f7…908e weather 533 markets active 2h ago coverage 955d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,765 (-0%) realized −$1,760 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%521W / 6L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,323per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$72
14 days+$72
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$4,243
weather 32% +$386
other 5% +$239
world 5% +$1,046
sports 3% +$680
politics 3% −$193
culture 1% +$305
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 10 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 145 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -13.2%
all 527 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$1,786) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1,391 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

955d coverage
Net worth$2,245
Realized−$1,760
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses521 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)527 / 533
History coverage955d
Avg bet$1,323
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,089 $1,085 −$3 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $429 $429 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $379 $378 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $258 $258 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or below on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $454 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $895 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $293 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $607 +$1 +0%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $2,178 +$69 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on May 17? May 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 17? May 27 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 17? May 27 $289 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or higher on May 17? May 27 $604 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 17? May 27 $1,092 +$1 +0%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2,100 +$21 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on May 15? May 16 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C or higher on May 15? May 16 $581 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 15? May 16 $1,451 +$2 +0%
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $2,149 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 13? May 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 13? May 14 $314 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 13? May 14 $870 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C or higher on May 13? May 14 $937 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 12? May 13 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C or higher on May 12? May 13 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 12? May 13 $427 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 12? May 13 $1,432 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C or higher on May 11? May 12 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 11? May 12 $273 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on May 11? May 12 $1,776 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 11 $311 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 11 $840 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 10? May 11 $990 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 9? May 10 $2,062 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 9? May 10 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on May 8? May 09 $905 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 8? May 09 $1,229 +$2 +0%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $2,128 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 30 $1,611 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C or higher on April 2 Apr 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on April 29? Apr 30 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on April 29? Apr 30 $2,020 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C or higher on April 2 Apr 29 $196 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 28? Apr 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 28? Apr 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 28? Apr 28 $742 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 28? Apr 28 $1,137 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on April 27? Apr 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 27? Apr 28 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on April 27? Apr 28 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 27? Apr 28 $242 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 27? Apr 28 $265 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 27? Apr 28 $1,337 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $206 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,089 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $379 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $429 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $454 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $895 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $293 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $607 2d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 97¢ $1,236 11d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 97¢ $97 11d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 96¢ $845 11d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or higher on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $604 33d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $57 33d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $233 33d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 33d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $174 33d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,092 33d
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,974 33d
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 33d
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 33d
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 33d
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 33d
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 33d
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $115 33d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $120 35d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C or higher on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $581 35d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,451 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,245.37 · official $2,245.37 (match) · 3177 history records