Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30f6…004f sports 785 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (153 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,992 (+21%) realized +$4,401 · open +$591
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%301W / 322L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day153.0pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$7,314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$1,859
other 22% +$364
politics 16% +$602
tech 7% +$169
world 7% +$124
culture 2% −$146
economics 2% −$143
finance 1% −$4
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (153 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 342 -19.6% -27.2% 36% 31% -4.7%
≤30d 623 +14.8% +3.9% 48% 42% -2.4%
≤90d 623 +14.8% +3.9% 48% 42% -2.4%
all 623 +14.8% +3.9% 48% 42% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover153.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.9% 42% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -6.0% 35% -11.7%
15% -15.1% 29% -20.2%
20% -23.4% 23% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$7,314
Realized+$4,401
Unrealized+$591
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses301 / 322
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions285
Markets (closed)623 / 785
History coverage17d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day153.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 285 History 623 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in June 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $270 $291 +$20 (+8%)
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? Yes 45¢ 70¢ $170 $267 +$96 (+56%)
Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in June 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $248 $263 +$15 (+6%)
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $234 $231 −$3 (-1%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 39¢ 50¢ $132 $167 +$35 (+27%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 93¢ 99¢ $149 $158 +$8 (+6%)
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? No 76¢ 84¢ $118 $132 +$14 (+12%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 19¢ 42¢ $60 $131 +$72 (+120%)
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Up 59¢ 93¢ $73 $114 +$41 (+57%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $101 $105 +$4 (+4%)
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in June? Yes 5¢ 32¢ $16 $102 +$86 (+533%)
Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? No 83¢ 98¢ $83 $98 +$15 (+18%)
Will Ozuna perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 84¢ 97¢ $84 $97 +$13 (+15%)
LA Mayoral Election: Spencer Pratt receives Over/Under 25%? Over 24¢ 99¢ $24 $95 +$72 (+305%)
Will Ed Sheeran perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 84¢ 99¢ $80 $95 +$15 (+18%)
Will Parker Messick win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? No 91¢ 93¢ $92 $93 +$2 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? No 81¢ 95¢ $77 $90 +$13 (+17%)
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05? No 83¢ 94¢ $79 $90 +$11 (+14%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 91¢ 88¢ $89 $87 −$3 (-3%)
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? No 82¢ 90¢ $78 $85 +$7 (+9%)
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026? No 79¢ 88¢ $76 $85 +$10 (+13%)
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Down 70¢ 83¢ $71 $84 +$13 (+19%)
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in June? No 84¢ 84¢ $84 $83 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $79 $80 +$2 (+2%)
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? No 77¢ 82¢ $73 $78 +$5 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austin: Kaja Juvan vs McCartney Kessler Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Oeiras 3: Henrique Rocha vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
AS Roma leading at halftime? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20 Jun 15 $9 +$159 +1766%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$5 -1638%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Avalanche vs. Jets Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $8 −$5 -65%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +576%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-04-17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-03-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in June? BUY No 89¢ $27 3m
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4m
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in June? BUY No 89¢ $4 4m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 45¢ $2 6m
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 95¢ $38 35m
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 37m
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 39m
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 65¢ $20 50m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 57¢ $9 58m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $34 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 57¢ $44 1h
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in June? BUY No 89¢ $31 1h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 42¢ $2 1h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 42¢ $7 1h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Otari Tanzilovi 42¢ $7 1h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 31¢ $8 2h
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in June? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in June? BUY No 66¢ $3 2h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 35¢ $9 2h
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in June? BUY No 66¢ $75 2h
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in June? BUY No 67¢ $17 2h
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in June? BUY No 67¢ $100 2h
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in June? BUY No 97¢ $141 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $72 3h
Will Ariana Grande feature Troye Sivan on Petal? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 70¢ $72 3h
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 4h
Will the US lose jobs in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,314.44 · official $7,311.14 (match) · 3500 history records