Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30f4…fc2c
world · 85 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage466d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 0 History 85 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $61 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $32 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $104 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $63 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $76 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $7 −$1 -21%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $119 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $39 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $65 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $71 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $29 −$3 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $41 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $38 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $38 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $79 $0 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $24 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $43 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $66 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $78 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $42 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $73 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 09 $36 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $107 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $77 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% −$4
politics 17% $0
sports 17% +$1
other 17% +$1
crypto 2% −$4
economics 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
finance 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $14 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $14 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $15 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $15 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $30 15h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $29 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $3 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $32 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $20 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $12 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $4 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $28 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $13 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $18 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $28 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $4 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $32 7d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 8d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $25 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 57% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 31 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 35% 1% -9.6%
all 85 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 1% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 316 history records