Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30ef…ac95 other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,456 (+6%) realized +$4,438 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate48%53W / 57L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$713per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$340
7 days+$1,033
14 days+$1,029
30 days+$2,095
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$3,125
politics 9% +$500
world 5% $0
weather 2% −$103
crypto 0% +$11
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -21.0% -28.5% 50% 18% -3.5%
≤30d 56 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 21% -4.6%
≤90d 110 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 25% -5.0%
all 110 -6.8% -15.7% 48% 25% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 25% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 19% -14.1%
15% -31.1% 15% -22.4%
20% -37.9% 12% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$657) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$85 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$4,438
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses53 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage60d
Avg bet$713
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? Yes 67¢ 98¢ $99 $146 +$47 (+47%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 57.5 million views in week 1? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $22 $28 +$5 (+24%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in week 1? Yes 36¢ 1¢ $34 $1 −$34 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $437 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1,021 −$105 -10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? Jun 19 $500 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 55.5 million views on day Jun 19 $233 −$77 -33%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55.5 and 56 million views on day Jun 19 $17 −$11 -65%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day Jun 19 $30 −$16 -54%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day Jun 18 $452 +$219 +48%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day Jun 18 $5,540 +$375 +7%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52.5 and 53 million views on day Jun 18 $23 −$22 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $387 +$226 +58%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $319 +$14 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $559 +$480 +86%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $294 −$246 -84%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $1,255 +$44 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $12 −$4 -31%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $38 −$1 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $4,195 +$159 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $337 +$19 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $24 +$6 +25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $21 +$112 +540%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 07 $2,959 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 06 $2,187 +$274 +12%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $577 −$340 -59%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $141 +$44 +31%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $35 −$11 -31%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $2,303 +$155 +7%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $2,274 −$11 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $381 +$62 +16%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $798 +$37 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $8 $0 -4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $802 +$141 +18%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 31 $657 +$56 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? May 31 $102 −$13 -12%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 30 $18 −$8 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $365 −$5 -1%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 27 $3,263 +$104 +3%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 $0 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 23 $1,339 +$572 +43%
Will MrBeast's video get between 66 and 67 million views on week 1? May 23 $44 +$2 +5%
Will MrBeast's video get less than 66 million views on week 1? May 23 $401 −$67 -17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 23 $574 −$533 -93%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 64 million views on day 6 May 22 $283 +$344 +121%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 May 22 $350 +$34 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 61 million views on day 6? May 22 $445 +$4 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 22 $300 −$30 -10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 May 22 $14 −$14 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 57.5 million views in wee BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 57.5 million views in wee BUY Yes 35¢ $4 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee BUY Yes 36¢ $35 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 57.5 million views in wee BUY Yes 48¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $16 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $41 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $22 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $13 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $61 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $17 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $21 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $78 7h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 55.5 million views on day BUY No 1¢ $1 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day BUY Yes 21¢ $8 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55.5 and 56 million views on day SELL Yes 1¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $13 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $12 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $20 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $911 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $99 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.73 · official $174.73 (match) · 964 history records