Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

30
0x30ef…5a9e
sports · 1577 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$526 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$529 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized+$529
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1459 / 128
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1587 / 1577
History coverage129d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 1587 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$76
14 days−$77
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Even 99¢ 50¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 93¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Galatasaray Esports - Map 2 Winner Galatasaray Esports 84¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs VARREL - Map 1 Winner VARREL 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
California Baptist Lancers vs. UT Arlington Mavericks: O/U 131.5 Under 94¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Dota 2: ex-HEROIC vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A ex-HEROIC 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Vici Gaming 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Map Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Rune Eaters 98¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Natus Vincere 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Even 96¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Movistar KOI 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Hashiras - Map 2 Winner MANA eSports 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs BOJONG - Map 2 Winner BOJONG 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffs DN SOOPers Challengers 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 51¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs South America Rejects (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs Power Rangers 15¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Odd 97¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
California Baptist Lancers vs. UT Arlington Mavericks: O/U 131.5 Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 2AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 4AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% +$402
other 41% +$213
crypto 1% −$11
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -13.7% -21.9% 80% 7% -29.9%
≤30d 191 -8.4% -17.1% 81% 16% -23.8%
≤90d 635 -3.1% -12.3% 85% 15% -10.7%
all 1587 -0.8% -10.2% 92% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 7% -8.7%
10% -18.8% 3% -17.5%
15% -26.7% 2% -25.4%
20% -33.9% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.51 · official $10.51 (match) · 3500 history records