Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
30 0x30ed…68ba sports 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,665 (-23%) realized −$2,653 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$452per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$64
14 days+$64
30 days−$609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$1,494
sports 26% −$522
other 14% −$538
crypto 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +64.5% +48.8% 100% 100% +48.8%
≤30d 16 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 50% -23.1%
≤90d 17 -6.9% -15.8% 47% 47% -30.6%
all 25 -14.3% -22.4% 40% 36% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 36% -30.2%
10% -29.9% 36% -36.9%
15% -36.6% 32% -43.0%
20% -42.8% 28% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$293 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$2,653
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage172d
Avg bet$452
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Over 41¢ 38¢ $161 $149 −$12 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $100 +$64 +64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 −$198 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $475 −$466 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $494 −$19 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $369 −$364 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $504 +$360 +72%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $252 −$250 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $143 +$207 +146%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $166 +$183 +111%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 +$2 +43%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $296 +$67 +23%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $220 −$216 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $131 +$87 +66%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $233 +$196 +84%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $298 −$66 -22%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $200 −$197 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $447 −$439 -98%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 13 $499 −$499 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 05 $998 +$86 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 01 $1,135 −$289 -26%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $498 +$495 +99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 01 $1,000 −$77 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1 Feb 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 01 $1,874 −$271 -14%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 08 $938 −$938 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $164 5m
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $164 6m
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $100 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $201 15d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $475 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 62¢ $475 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $494 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $369 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $863 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $504 15d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $252 15d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $143 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $349 16d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 16d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $6 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $166 16d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $296 16d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 17d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $118 17d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $218 17d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $131 17d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $429 17d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $233 17d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 26¢ $232 17d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $298 17d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $200 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $447 30d
Iran leadership change by March 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $499 108d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $1,084 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $998 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.58 · official $148.58 (match) · 43 history records