Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:51:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x30ed…a533 finance 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,585 (+4%) realized +$1,525 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate83%24W / 5L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$1,323per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$491
7 days+$641
14 days+$45
30 days+$1,061
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 63% +$825
politics 23% +$79
other 7% +$144
crypto 7% +$293
world 0% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +14.8% +3.9% 100% 80% +4.8%
≤30d 25 -4.7% -13.8% 80% 52% -6.7%
≤90d 29 +0.6% -9.0% 83% 55% -6.2%
all 29 +0.6% -9.0% 83% 55% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 55% -6.2%
10% -17.7% 14% -15.1%
15% -25.7% 10% -23.3%
20% -32.9% 7% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$2,046) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$421 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$2,626
Realized+$1,525
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses24 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage79d
Avg bet$1,323
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 25? No 95¢ 97¢ $2,566 $2,626 +$60 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on June 24? Jun 24 $2,065 +$484 +24%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 23? Jun 23 $55 +$7 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 18? Jun 18 $260 +$36 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? Jun 18 $101 +$18 +18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,565 +$95 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1,356 −$1,352 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? Jun 16 $515 +$41 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,951 +$285 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,819 +$144 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $184 +$14 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2,523 +$282 +11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 12 $305 −$305 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 11 $734 +$109 +15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,474 +$199 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $2,424 +$96 +4%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 10 $5,236 −$434 -8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $2,380 +$388 +16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8? Jun 08 $572 +$98 +17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,704 +$96 +6%
Will Sandro Parcaroli win the 2026 Macerata mayoral election? Jun 08 $2,046 +$230 +11%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $1,798 +$248 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 01 $220 +$148 +67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 01 $1,285 +$145 +11%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? May 21 $124 +$96 +77%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 17 $1,217 +$68 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 04 $1,100 +$117 +11%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 19 $88 +$36 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $2,350 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $222 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $69 on June 24? BUY Yes 81¢ $2,065 28h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 23? BUY Yes 90¢ $0 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 23? BUY Yes 89¢ $31 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 23? BUY Yes 89¢ $24 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 93¢ $1,356 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 18? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 18? BUY Yes 87¢ $134 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 18? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 18? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on June 18? BUY Yes 89¢ $88 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $421 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $5 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $37 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $1,103 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $401 8d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $114 9d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3,228 9d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 9d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? BUY No 52¢ $12 10d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $2,724 10d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $228 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,963 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,819 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $197 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 92¢ $184 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,625.85 · official $2,625.85 (match) · 90 history records