Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30ed…805b crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$37 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate74%20W / 7L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$520per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$639now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$441
30 days−$441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$361
crypto 22% +$6
other 16% +$35
politics 11% +$31
finance 7% −$419
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 13 -5.7% -14.7% 69% 15% -9.7%
all 27 -3.4% -12.6% 74% 30% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 30% -9.4%
10% -21.0% 19% -18.1%
15% -28.6% 7% -26.0%
20% -35.6% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$94 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$639
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses20 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage97d
Avg bet$520
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 89¢ 87¢ $379 $368 −$11 (-3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 89¢ 97¢ $248 $271 +$22 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 21 $442 −$441 -100%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $122 +$3 +3%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 09 $289 −$20 -7%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 08 $1,681 +$32 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $4,589 +$339 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 06 $516 +$6 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 06 $461 +$29 +6%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? May 05 $324 +$13 +4%
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3? May 05 $66 +$15 +23%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 05 $544 +$6 +1%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m? May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $707 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 25 $27 +$17 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 25 $414 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 25 $230 +$46 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 25 $60 −$56 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 25 $57 +$18 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 25 $114 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 25 $194 +$56 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 25 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $1,370 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 24 $407 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 24 $407 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 24 $422 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 24 $66 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 24 $424 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 89¢ $53 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 97¢ $58 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 89¢ $328 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 98¢ $216 12h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 89¢ $95 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 90¢ $200 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 88¢ $36 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 88¢ $0 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 88¢ $358 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 77¢ $385 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 78¢ $24 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 77¢ $33 7d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? SELL Yes 80¢ $125 48d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 78¢ $119 48d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 48d
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? SELL Yes 8¢ $59 50d
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? SELL Yes 11¢ $31 50d
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 50d
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 50d
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 50d
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 50d
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 50d
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 50d
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 50d
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 50d
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 50d
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 50d
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 50d
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 50d
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $638.79 · official $638.79 (match) · 444 history records