Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30ec…2c4b world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% $0
other 25% +$1
politics 5% −$5
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 13% 0% -9.6%
all 40 -1.9% -11.2% 28% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -10.0%
10% -19.7% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage458d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $44 +$3 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $106 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $43 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $23 −$2 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $48 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $8 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $6 +$2 +25%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 04 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 02 $8 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 26 $8 $0 +5%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 13 $8 $0 +3%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $11 −$4 -32%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $12 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $50 1h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $31 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $43 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $4 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $44 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $31 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $48 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $48 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $44 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $7 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $37 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $17 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $4 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 78¢ $23 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 76¢ $43 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.83 · official $49.83 (match) · 136 history records