trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 1 | -23.1% | -30.4% | 0% | 0% | -30.4% |
| all | 8 | -44.3% | -49.6% | 25% | 25% | -42.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -49.6% | 25% | -42.6% |
| 10% | -54.4% | 25% | -48.1% |
| 15% | -58.8% | 12% | -53.1% |
| 20% | -62.9% | 0% | -57.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 4¢ | $30 | $28 | −$2 (-8%) |
| Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $30 | $21 | −$9 (-30%) |
| Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $1 | −$9 (-90%) |
| Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-45%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Mar 23 | $50 | −$12 | -23% |
| Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026? | Mar 15 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 08 | $100 | −$5 | -5% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Mar 03 | $100 | +$39 | +39% |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? | Mar 03 | $33 | −$33 | -100% |
| Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? | Mar 01 | $25 | +$9 | +34% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)? | Jan 14 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)? | Jan 14 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |