Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x30e8…1db3 other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%36W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit1%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$34
14 days+$82
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$7
sports 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +32.4% +19.8% 80% 80% +28.1%
≤30d 13 +40.4% +27.1% 69% 62% +10.3%
≤90d 18 +34.3% +21.5% 67% 61% +6.5%
all 67 +7.3% -2.9% 54% 52% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 52% -8.4%
10% -12.2% 52% -17.1%
15% -20.7% 49% -25.1%
20% -28.4% 43% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$26 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses36 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)67 / 73
History coverage178d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit1%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Stripe’s market cap be $140B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$3 +22%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$26 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Edmonton Elks vs. Ottawa Redblacks Jun 07 $10 +$12 +119%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$35 +344%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 20 $35 +$3 +10%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $28 +$30 +105%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $14 +$7 +48%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $15 +$13 +86%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $15 +$24 +158%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 12 $15 +$6 +39%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 12 $15 +$12 +79%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 12 $15 +$16 +104%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $35 +$23 +67%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $40 +$26 +64%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $30 +$40 +133%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-06? Feb 07 $100 +$127 +127%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-02? Feb 03 $63 +$52 +82%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $40 +$23 +59%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $30 +$18 +61%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $30 +$19 +64%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $20 +$30 +150%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $30 +$24 +79%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 18 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 18 $20 +$23 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $15 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 36h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 36h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 36h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 36h
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 11d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will Stripe’s market cap be $140B or greater at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Edmonton Elks vs. Ottawa Redblacks BUY Edmonton Elks 45¢ $10 11d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 29d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 29d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 29d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 29d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $28 31d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 31d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 91¢ $35 31d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 47d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 47d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 47d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 47d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $28 125d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 126d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 126d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 126d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-11? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.03 · official $80.03 (match) · 110 history records