Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30e5…c3f5 crypto 1781 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%922W / 859L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$108
14 days−$108
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$627
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -12.3% -20.6% 58% 53% -20.3%
≤30d 209 -15.9% -23.9% 56% 51% -23.3%
≤90d 1781 -7.8% -16.6% 52% 50% -16.2%
all 1781 -7.8% -16.6% 52% 50% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 50% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 48% -24.2%
15% -31.9% 46% -31.5%
20% -38.6% 44% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses922 / 859
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1781 / 1781
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1781 Trades
no open positions (241 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records