Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
30 0x30e4…5393 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-2%) realized −$18 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$1,285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$33
sports 22% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$7 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,285
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $886 $881 −$6 (-1%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $335 $323 −$11 (-3%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $73 $67 −$5 (-7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Cape Verde reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-35%)
Will Cape Verde be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+125%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $75 44m
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $343 45m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $892 46m
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $171 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 79¢ $984 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $193 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,009 1h
Will Cape Verde reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Will Cape Verde be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,284.92 · official $1,284.93 (match) · 16 history records