trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? | Jun 12 | $258 | −$258 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? | Jun 12 | $145 | −$145 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? | Jun 03 | $3,861 | +$2,935 | +76% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? | Jun 03 | $116 | −$110 | -95% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? | Jun 03 | $843 | +$483 | +57% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? | Jun 02 | $643 | +$472 | +73% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? | May 30 | $4,933 | −$3,614 | -73% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | May 30 | $2,302 | +$1,227 | +53% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? | May 29 | $3,079 | −$2,179 | -71% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? | May 28 | $5,767 | −$5,119 | -89% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? | May 28 | $559 | −$450 | -80% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? | May 26 | $274 | −$256 | -94% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? | May 26 | $17 | −$16 | -94% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? | May 26 | $93 | −$87 | -94% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? | May 26 | $8 | −$8 | -94% |
| Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | May 25 | $503 | +$1,322 | +263% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? | May 14 | $187 | −$66 | -36% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 08 | $675 | +$195 | +29% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 30 | $390 | +$45 | +12% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 24 | $268 | +$334 | +125% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 23 | $34 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? | Apr 18 | $66 | +$20 | +30% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 17 | -30.0% | -36.6% | 29% | 29% | -23.4% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -14.2% | -22.3% | 45% | 41% | -19.4% |
| all | 22 | -14.2% | -22.3% | 45% | 41% | -19.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -22.3% | 41% | -19.4% |
| 10% | -29.8% | 36% | -27.2% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -36.6% | 27% | -34.2% |
| 20% | -42.8% | 27% | -40.6% |