Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:49:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
30 0x30e0…48a4 other 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,984 (+1%) realized +$1,981 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate22%30W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$1,450per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$32
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$687
politics 37% −$87
sports 10% +$1,355
world 3% −$9
economics 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +7.9% -2.4% 9% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 77 +8.3% -2.0% 10% 8% -8.8%
all 135 +12.2% +1.5% 22% 18% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 18% -8.6%
10% -8.2% 18% -17.4%
15% -17.1% 16% -25.4%
20% -25.2% 14% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,102) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$10 · ×9.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized+$1,981
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses30 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,450
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $362 $365 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $956 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3,482 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $2,423 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,013 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $1,803 −$2 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $2,118 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,555 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,575 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $4,051 −$5 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,240 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $4,138 −$5 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $76 +$73 +97%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,164 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $5,707 −$7 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,705 −$4 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $335 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,942 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $3,188 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,720 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 28 $1,188 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,301 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,237 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,325 −$2 -0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $68 +$188 +276%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,665 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $55 +$87 +158%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,596 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 21 $1,067 +$919 +86%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $3,297 −$5 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $3,591 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $6,054 −$7 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $4,375 −$4 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $1,876 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $3,236 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $2,032 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $5,384 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $311 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $312 2h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $425 22h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $425 22h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $250 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $251 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $894 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $895 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $830 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $832 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $800 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $802 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $853 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $854 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $812 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $813 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $854 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $855 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $854 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $855 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $643 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $644 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $362 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,020 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,022 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,032 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,034 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,117 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,119 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $865 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.29 · official $365.29 (match) · 463 history records