Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30de…eeb1 other 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$2,086 (-1%) realized −$2,086 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate27%37W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,365per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$43
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$85
other 39% −$124
sports 10% −$1,891
culture 3% −$4
economics 3% −$6
world 2% +$2
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 74 -15.4% -23.5% 9% 5% -11.4%
all 135 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 12% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 12% -10.6%
10% -18.3% 12% -19.1%
15% -26.2% 10% -26.9%
20% -33.5% 8% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,897) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$38 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$2,086
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses37 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,365
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $235 $235 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $1,897 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $1,912 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,081 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,109 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,520 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $1,966 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,564 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,352 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,051 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6,109 −$6 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $4,063 −$5 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,114 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,695 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $1,934 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $5,755 −$7 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,637 −$3 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $72 +$41 +57%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $1,215 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 04 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $45 +$56 +124%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $135 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $527 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $3,575 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $3,962 −$6 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 26 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,953 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $752 −$1 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $47 +$63 +134%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,662 −$3 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $2,406 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Wild vs. Stars May 20 $1,325 −$1,325 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,153 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,211 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $900 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,861 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $5,704 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $281 1h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $281 4h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $269 27h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $269 28h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $541 4d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $541 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,079 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,081 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,107 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,109 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,031 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,032 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $902 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $903 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $891 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $892 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $949 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $950 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,023 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,025 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $741 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $742 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,069 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,071 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,049 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,051 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,006 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,008 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,019 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,021 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.69 · official $234.69 (match) · 455 history records