Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
30 0x30de…1f9d sports 522 markets active 2d ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$331 (-1%) realized −$616 · open +$285
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%229W / 281L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,855now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$174
14 days+$350
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$409
politics 23% −$1,705
other 19% +$8
world 12% +$428
finance 7% +$584
crypto 3% −$102
culture 1% +$106
tech 0% −$114
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +26.4% +14.3% 46% 46% +2.9%
≤30d 109 +22.2% +10.5% 46% 46% -9.0%
≤90d 408 -6.7% -15.5% 42% 42% -8.8%
all 510 -1.8% -11.1% 45% 43% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 43% -11.8%
10% -19.6% 40% -20.2%
15% -27.4% 35% -27.9%
20% -34.5% 29% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$1,855
Realized−$616
Unrealized+$285
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses229 / 281
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions11
Markets (closed)510 / 522
History coverage296d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 510 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 71¢ $770 $947 +$177 (+23%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 63¢ 61¢ $504 $486 −$18 (-4%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 44¢ 71¢ $133 $215 +$82 (+61%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 88¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+6%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+36%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +128%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $78 +$40 +51%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $134 −$97 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $45 −$18 -41%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $65 −$5 -8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-1.5) Jun 14 $106 −$105 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $204 +$291 +142%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $19 +$43 +226%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $99 −$45 -45%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$10 +982%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 −$26 -98%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $83 +$20 +24%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $6 +$12 +190%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $109 +$28 +26%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $59 +$33 +56%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $5 +$7 +142%
Will Trump say "Job" 2+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $53 +$54 +102%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $17 −$1 -8%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $16 +$21 +129%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $8 +$9 +109%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $3 $0 -1%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $4 +$4 +104%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $90 46h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $16 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 13¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $60 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 50¢ $60 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $414 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3d
Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-1.5) BUY CF Universidad de Chile 76¢ $101 3d
Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-1.5) BUY CF Universidad de Chile 49¢ $5 3d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $20 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $6 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $19 3d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 SELL Yes 100¢ $19 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $65 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $54 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $99 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,855.28 · official $1,855.28 (match) · 1336 history records