Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30dd…e0bf crypto 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+6%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%22W / 59L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$38
14 days−$8
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$67
other 29% −$41
crypto 26% +$8
sports 11% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +62.4% +46.9% 75% 75% +20.8%
≤30d 32 -39.9% -45.6% 28% 28% -9.9%
≤90d 81 -4.5% -13.6% 27% 25% -2.6%
all 81 -4.5% -13.6% 27% 25% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 25% -2.6%
10% -21.8% 20% -11.9%
15% -29.4% 16% -20.4%
20% -36.3% 16% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$6 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses22 / 59
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 93
History coverage36d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $47 +$28 +60%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sene Jun 26 $10 +$21 +216%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $22 +$2 +11%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $36 −$14 -38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $46 −$32 -69%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +71%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$12 +77%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $25 $0 -1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 +$12 +78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $34 −$10 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $67 −$7 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $48 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 04 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $90 +$17 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $102 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 28 $9 −$5 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 28 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $93 +$18 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 26 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $0 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 26 $11 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 26 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a dra BUY 19¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $26 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY 19¢ $6 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sene SELL 99¢ $31 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Senegal BUY 20¢ $5 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals BUY 23¢ $5 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sene BUY 31¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $19 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 19¢ $9 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 51¢ $10 6d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Belgiu BUY 26¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 A BUY 26¢ $24 9d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 17¢ $10 10d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY 15¢ $5 10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 11d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $20 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $31 12d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $17 12d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 13d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $8 14d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $5.85 · 220 history records