Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30dc…768e sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+8%) realized +$21 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$26
sports 36% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +18.6% +7.3% 80% 80% -20.3%
≤30d 5 +18.6% +7.3% 80% 80% -20.3%
≤90d 5 +18.6% +7.3% 80% 80% -20.3%
all 5 +18.6% +7.3% 80% 80% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 80% -20.3%
10% -2.9% 80% -28.0%
15% -12.3% 80% -34.9%
20% -20.9% 20% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$51 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Taylor Fritz 69¢ 68¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Naomi Osaka 74¢ 74¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $38 +$16 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $12 +$5 +46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $8 +$5 +61%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $102 −$51 -50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$9 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 69¢ $29 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 74¢ $25 1h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 68¢ $17 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $17 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $12 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $52 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 43¢ $52 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $8 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 16¢ $21 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 84¢ $29 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.04 · official $70.04 (match) · 18 history records