Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30dc…f26e sports 760 markets active 0h ago coverage 579d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,298 (-26%) realized −$1,283 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%199W / 559L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$74
14 days+$74
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$1,011
crypto 20% −$242
other 9% −$46
world 0% −$18
politics 0% −$8
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +21.4% +9.8% 41% 41% +2.7%
≤30d 61 +21.4% +9.8% 41% 41% +2.7%
≤90d 106 +4.6% -5.3% 41% 41% -31.3%
all 758 -17.8% -25.6% 26% 26% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 26% -35.3%
10% -32.8% 26% -41.5%
15% -39.3% 26% -47.2%
20% -45.2% 26% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

579d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1,283
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses199 / 559
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)758 / 760
History coverage579d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 758 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 52¢ 24¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group A 4M 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 422 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $10 +$29 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $14 +$21 +145%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $18 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $20 +$28 +139%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $42 +$50 +119%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $25 +$17 +71%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $5 +$14 +266%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $12 +$13 +105%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $15 +$24 +158%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $13 +$17 +134%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Jun 14 $5 +$17 +324%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3 +$8 +303%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$19 +364%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $12 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +140%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 +$7 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +110%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$7 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$5 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 56m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY 4M 38¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 26¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $35 10h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 39¢ $3 12h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 28¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $4 13h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 40¢ $14 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 34¢ $13 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 100¢ $49 24h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 41¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 41¢ $15 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 25h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 35¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.71 · official $9.80 · 1241 history records