Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
30 0x30db…80ab crypto 336 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$181 (-2%) realized −$181 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate81%272W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$26
14 days+$20
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$105
other 20% −$9
world 9% −$444
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 280 -1.0% -10.4% 89% 25% -10.0%
≤90d 334 +0.4% -9.2% 81% 26% -8.5%
all 336 +0.2% -9.3% 81% 26% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 26% -13.1%
10% -18.0% 10% -21.4%
15% -25.9% 6% -29.0%
20% -33.2% 4% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$18 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses272 / 64
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)336 / 336
History coverage161d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 336 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $80 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $39 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $80 +$6 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $80 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $80 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $80 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $80 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $80 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 07 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 07 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $80 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $80 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $80 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $80 47h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $80 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $80 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $80 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $80 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $80 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $80 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $80 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $80 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $80 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 793 history records